Risk Register
Owner: JAAB.tech founders Last reviewed: 2026-05-08 Cadence: Review at the start of each Phase milestone, plus on demand when a new high-impact risk is identified.
Purpose. A single place to track the things that could derail TuVaca / FluxCow before they do. Each row names the risk, scores likelihood × impact, names a mitigation, and names an owner. Risks without owners are not really tracked — they are wishes. If a row is unowned for more than two reviews, either assign it or delete it.
Scoring
- Likelihood: Low / Med / High — probability the risk materializes within the next 12 months.
- Impact: Low / Med / High — severity if it does (Low = recoverable in days; Med = quarter slip; High = pivot/restart).
- Severity: the diagonal — High/High = "this is the conversation we should be having today".
Active Risks
| ID | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Last Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-01 | Stray-cow range under Star topology — ADR 0007 ships single-mode Star for MVP. Members beyond ~2–3 km of any Leader go dark until they return. Phase 1 must size Leader density per paddock and measure stray frequency. | Med | Med | Add stray-cow telemetry as a Phase 1 success metric (tracked silent>24h). Add Leader-density planning to deployment-design checklist. If field data shows stray frequency materially above zero, the mesh-promotion decision is on the table. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-02 | Satellite cost volatility — Sateliot/Skylo/Globalstar pricing not contractually locked. A 2× pricing move would break the Tier 3 economics in ADR 0006. | Med | High | Maintain ≥2 NTN partners through LOI stage; do not single-source. Lock pricing in any LOI for ≥24 months. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-03 | ANII grant outcome — winners have been selected for the 2025 Traceability Challenge prototype. Post-prototype standard bid is the strategic next gate. Loss of that bid removes the Uruguay wedge. | Med | High | Do not single-thread on the ANII bid; parallel-pipeline private-pilot opportunities (e.g. Minerva Foods EUDR data, cooperative pilots). | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-04 | Single-supplier concentration — current architecture leans on Nordic (silicon), Quectel (modules), Sateliot (NTN). Any single vendor lockup or pricing shift cascades. | Med | Med | Per-component second-source plan in docs/20_technology/components/component_partners.md — verify each Member/Leader BOM line has an alternate vendor identified by Phase 1 close. |
TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-05 | Regulatory frequency licensing per country — 915 MHz Sub-GHz is open in US/UY but restricted in some Mercosur peers. Field deployment beyond UY may require per-country FCC/equivalent recertification. | Med | Med | Compliance-readiness matrix per target country (UY, AR, PY, BR, CO) — to be added to docs/20_technology/standards/. Defer non-UY deployments until matrix is filled. |
TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-06 | EUDR timing slip — EUDR enforcement delays would reduce urgency on the FinTech / packer-driven traceability narrative. | Low | Med | Don't make EUDR the primary value-prop; lead with operational ROI (mortality, theft, breeding). EUDR is the bonus. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-07 | Validation evidence missing — headline >80% accuracy claims (lameness, estrus, theft) have no published dataset, labeling protocol, model, or veterinary partner cited. Sophisticated investors will discount the economic model that depends on these. | High | Med | Stand up one short validation-plan doc per use case in docs/10_product/use_cases/. Identify a veterinary partner for labeling. Yesterday's review listed this as H-6. |
TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| ~~R-08~~ | ~~Funding-ladder inconsistency~~ — MOOT under ADR 0008 (2026-05-08). The COTS-first reset put the entire funding ladder on hold; reconciling three inconsistent versions of an invalidated ladder is no longer load-bearing. The deeper risk shifted to R-12 (COTS dependency). When the ladder is re-derived post-validation, this row reactivates as "do not let three inconsistent versions exist again" — single source of truth must be the xlsx. | — | — | Closed by reset. | — | 2026-05-08 |
| R-09 | Blues / Notehub data sovereignty conflict — accelerated NTN path via Blues routes through Notehub.io (US SaaS), which conflicts with the "Sovereign Digital Twin" framing and likely with SNIG/ANII data residency expectations. | Med | Med | Confirm self-hosted Notehub or direct-to-cloud path in the upcoming Blues meeting (week of 2026-05-11). If neither exists, route Blues through the Tier 2/3 commercial path only, keep ANII pilot on Sateliot/Skylo. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-10 | Co-founder vacancy — docs/70_internal/team/team-alignment-strategy.md carries two TBD equity placeholders. Acceptable now; blocking before fundraise. |
Low | High | Resolve before Series Seed close. M-6 from yesterday's review. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-11 | Next-milestone vacuum — Phase 1 (Innovar 2026) and Phase 2 (World Agri-Tech) are both cancelled per the roadmap. No replacement event or private milestone has been committed. The longer Phase 0 runs without a concrete forward commitment, the more the work loses urgency and stakeholder visibility. Per ADR 0008, the next milestone is now scoped to COTS-based market validation. | Med | High | Treat "Next-milestone selection" as the highest-priority Phase 0 deliverable. Lock a COTS-based pilot or commercial trial with a date and named owner within ≤4 weeks. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-12 | COTS dependency / margin compression / vendor lock-in — ADR 0008 commits the MVP to COTS hardware (RAK3172-class, Blues Notecard-class). MVP unit economics will be 5–10× the original BOM model, so MVP margin is thin to negative. COTS vendor pricing changes or discontinuation hit the MVP directly. Some COTS modules (e.g. Blues Notecard) route data through vendor cloud, see R-09. | High | Med | Treat COTS economics as expected for the validation phase, not as a problem to optimize. Validate two COTS Member candidates and two COTS Leader candidates in parallel during the validation engagement. Avoid signing exclusive or volume-locked agreements with any single COTS vendor before the post-validation custom-hardware decision. | TBD | 2026-05-08 |
| R-13 | Institutional Trust Erosion (SNIG Controversy) — The classification of the SNIG audit as "reserved" following the Conexión Ganadera scandal creates a vacuum of trust in the state-run traceability system. This is an Opportunity to position TuVaca as the transparent alternative, but also a Risk if new regulations impose restrictive or opaque integration requirements. | Low | High | Opportunity Activation: Lead with "Sovereign & Auditable" messaging. Position the JAAB.tech stack as the transparent ledger the SNIG currently lacks. Mitigation: Ensure architecture supports "Export to SNIG" without data loss or opacity. See SNIG Analysis. | TBD | 2026-05-10 |
Archived Risks
(none yet — risks move here when materially closed or no longer credible, with a one-line resolution note)
How to use this file
- A risk lives here from the moment it is plausible until it is materially closed.
- Don't delete closed rows — move them to Archived with a one-line note explaining how it resolved. The history is the value.
- If a Mitigation is "we'll figure it out", that's a placeholder, not a mitigation. Either replace with something concrete or change the Severity to reflect the lack of a plan.
- Owners are individuals, not teams. "JAAB" is not an owner. "Andres" or "Anibal" is.